Dr. Csaba Tóth

Political scientist, strategist, writer.

You might already know: I've rarely done just one thing at a time. One thing I'd never got to, though, was assemble all of it in one place. Now I have — hence this homepage.

Check out Background if you want more depth on what I've done. Or skip that and head straight to how we could work together, at Strategy and Counsel. And AI, Society and Politics, on what I think are the most pressing problems of our time.

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Background
Analysis · Academics · Advocacy
Analysis, research and advocacy complement each other in my work. The key: transparency about roles.
Explore →
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Strategy and Counsel
Strategy · Branding · Healthcare
There is no fixed recipe for 1:1 consulting, but there is an attitude. I will be the person whose only agenda is you.
Explore →
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AI, Society and Politics
Democracy · AI · Science Fiction
Society and politics are not ready for the AI revolution. The AI field needs people who understand society and politics. I am one of those people.
Explore →
"Even viewed with the coolest critical eye, this is an excellent work — both the quality of the analysis and of the writing."— Filmtekercs.hu
"Csaba Tóth doesn't just think and analyse — he makes you think and analyse."— Roboraptor.hu
"Finally, a political scientist who takes science fiction seriously."— Bence Földi, Medium

Let's talk

Whether you need a strategist, a speaker, an analyst, or someone who thinks differently about what's coming.

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Background

Analysis · Academics · Advocacy

Understanding politics is inseparable from participating in it. Over twenty years I have moved between the seminar room and the campaign war room, between writing books and writing strategy memos, between analysing democratic backsliding and fighting it in practice. The common thread is rigorous thinking applied to real political problems — and a refusal to accept that scholarship and engagement must remain separate worlds.

Download full CV (PDF) →
Dr. Strangelove exhibition

Analysis

My approach to analysis has always been to provide insight. I have more often challenged conventional wisdom than echoed it, and always sought to read between the lines.

Between 2009 and 2019, I led Republikon Institute, wrote blogs, and took part in debates. In 2019 I became chief advisor to a politician, naturally stopping my own public appearances. Since 2022, I have focused on in-depth, original work — for clients and for the public alike.
Lecture hall, full of students

Academics

Teaching has been part of my work from early on. I started while still a student, then stayed for more than fifteen years at my alma mater, ELTE. I taught bachelor's and master's students, supervised theses, and led learning groups; I remain a member of ELTE's Political Science Doctoral School. My courses ranged from classical ones — party systems, electoral systems, Hungarian politics — to more experimental work on political marketing and campaigns. These days I am focused on more intensive, targeted teaching: in the coming semesters I will teach at the CEU Democracy Institute Leadership Academy and the Széchenyi István Szakkollégium.
Václav Havel Jury

Advocacy

I have never let my politics cloud my analyses — but I have never stopped arguing for the causes that matter to me. Human rights, the rule of law, democracy, tolerance: through the Orbán years in Hungary, I have advocated for these values and the policies that protect them. I have given talks at human rights festivals, LGBTQ events, and pro-democracy gatherings. The photo here documents something I am eternally proud of — serving on the Václav Havel jury at the Jeden Svět film festival in Prague.
Populism vs. Liberalism — with David Goodhart at Brain Bar Budapest
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Strategy and Counsel

Strategy · Branding · Healthcare Communications

I am an existentialist. I believe you are best when you do: You. I help you find it, understand it, contextualise it. Then to rigorously do it, over and over again. Also show it, if needed. Or hide it. I promise: it will feel so... obvious. Why would you have needed anyone for that?

Strategic advisory
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Thinking
You know the feeling when you can't decide what to do, you toss a coin, it lands tails — and you suddenly realise, at that moment, you want heads? (If you are less lucky, you only realise there is no way you do tails, and have to start over.) I will help you figure all this out. Map the options. Give them names. Simulate the toss. So that you will know exactly what to do.
A Tökéletes Kampány (The Perfect Campaign)
[INSERT: buy link]
References on request.
On stage
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Appearing
"So all you have to do is really prioritise posing for pictures all the time, smile, be folksy and really funny (not cringe, of course, haha)." I promise not to do this. I understand culture, trade-offs and priorities. Coming from politics, I know that "just try and embrace failing" only works if your field is the game Risk and not actual... risk. I am lucky to do this at a time when authenticity sells.
Pontokban Academy
Co-founded with Szabolcs Dull (former Editor-in-Chief of Index and Telex).
Learn more →
[INSERT: debate video]
In the field
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Doing
You know, of course, what execution originally means. (What a smart twist, right?) And yes, sometimes you need to execute. But sometimes you need diplomacy, patience, alliances. I find that most of the time, you just need to convince yourself to do it — because often, it is dull or painful. I will help you bear it. Also, by this point I will know which you disprefer more, and make sure you can do more of the other.
My clients include political leaders, senior public figures, and organisations in high-pressure environments. References on request.
Medgic — Healthcare Strategy
I also work in healthcare strategy and communications through Medgic, a consultancy I co-founded with Gábor Havasi.
Visit Medgic →

President Truman supposedly said: If you want a friend in Washington, get a dog. Bad advice. A dog might easily betray you for a bigger sausage. I won't. I will also help telling the good advice from the bad. And I will have but one agenda. You. Not what you should be or should do, but who you are and what you will do.

Contact me to see if we are a good fit →
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AI, Society and Politics

Democracy · Artificial Intelligence · Science Fiction

Society and politics are not ready for the AI revolution. The AI field needs people who understand society and politics. I am one of those people.

Politics and AI

Predictions about AI focus on the technology, sometimes on its economic effects — and stop there. The blind spot is the same one that swallowed the internet and social media: democracy and politics. AI never had the early optimism those technologies enjoyed; it is already unpopular, and that sentiment is widespread, politically unrepresented, and growing. It has every marker of an issue a populist entrepreneur could ride — relatable, opinion-bearing, and met by a political system that looks unresponsive. When that breakthrough comes, as immigration did in 2015, party systems can reshape within a single electoral cycle.

AI Governance

There's a lot of information that needs to pass between today's AI governance literature and the disciplines that have long dealt with takeovers and how to treat them — constitutional law, history, social science, political science. I look at AI takeovers as takeovers, and ask what governance structures the analogy suggests: the designs devised against human-led takeovers. One such design is adversarial institutional design, but many others are possible. The point is that these disciplines need to work together and build a unified framework — if we are to take this risk seriously, both intellectually and in practice.
If AI Were Angels — Part 1
The case for adversarial institutional design.
Read →
Checks and Balances Against Catastrophic Risk — Part 2
The seven-institution framework.
Read →
Galactic Institutions — Part 3
The framework run against a fictional AI takeover.
Read →

SciFiPol

Ten years ago I published a book arguing that science fiction is not escapism but a laboratory for political thought. That book became four books, a university course, a conference franchise, and a community of 30+ authors. Now I am building the English-language version: a Substack, an international outreach programme, and a growing body of work applying political science to fictional universes — and fictional imagination to political science.
See all books →
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Let's talk

Strategy · Speaking · Analysis · Collaboration

Whether you need a strategist, a speaker, an analyst, or someone who thinks differently about what's coming — I'd be glad to hear from you. The best way to reach me is by email, and I read everything that comes in.

ctothdr@csabatothdr.com
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Háttértudás

Political Analysis Podcast · with Balázs Böcskei

How political decision-making really works. A podcast on Átlátszó.hu where we read between the lines of Hungarian and international politics.

[INSERT: podcast episodes and embed links]

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Media

TV · Debates · Interviews · Conferences

Selected appearances, debates, and writing.

In English
Hungarian Media Freedom
Deutsche Welle · interview
Watch →
Do We Need a Pluralistic Europe?
Brain Bar Budapest · debate with David Goodhart
Watch →
AI-Policy or AI-Policing?
Opening speech · AI conference, Tallinn (ELF & Academy of Liberalism)
Watch →
Science Fiction & Politics
Learn Liberty · Students For Liberty
Watch →
The EU Is Like Star Wars' Old Republic
EUobserver · interview
Read →
Illiberal Hungary and Stages of Grief in Politics
4liberty.eu · essay
Read →
Háttértudás — Weekly Podcast
My weekly political-analysis podcast with Balázs Böcskei on Átlátszó.hu — reading between the lines of Hungarian and international politics.
Listen →
In Hungarian
Politics & Science Fiction
3. utas · Tilos Rádió
Listen →
Campaign Strategy
Krízisek és pofonok · Bőhm Kornél
Listen →
Tökéletes kampány
Líra Könyvklub · book feature
Read →
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Publications

Academic Papers · Chapters · Edited Volumes

A selection of academic and policy publications. Most are freely downloadable.

In English & International
Political Science in Hungary: A Discipline in the Making
with Krisztina Arató · in Eisfeld & Pal (eds.), Political Science in Central-East Europe: Diversity and Convergence, Barbara Budrich, 2010, pp. 149–162
Reference →
A Liberal Stance on European Integration
in van Mil et al. (eds.), Liberal Perspectives on European Integration, European Liberal Forum / van Mierlo Foundation, 2015
PDF →
When Robots Take Our Jobs, Who Will We Vote For?
in Citizen-Centred Digitalisation, European Liberal Forum, 2019
ELF library →
Wyzwanie Nieliberalnej Demokracji
The Challenge of Illiberal Democracy · Liberté!, XIX, 2014, pp. 92–97 · in Polish
Liberté! →
In Hungarian
Az új pártrendszer
with Gábor Török · in Társadalmi Riport 2014, TÁRKI, pp. 511–531
PDF →
A győztes mindent visz? A 2018-as választás eredményei
with Andrea Szabó · in Böcskei & Szabó (eds.), Várakozások és valóságok, Napvilág / MTA TK PTI, 2018, pp. 19–43
Volume →
Ki a politológus? Tudós, elemző és más szerepek
with András Körösényi & Gábor Török · Politikatudományi Szemle, XVII/2, 2008, pp. 7–27
PDF →
A magyar pártrendszer fejlődésének fő iránya
Politikatudományi Szemle, 2001/3, pp. 81–104
PDF →
Liberális pártok összehasonlító elemzése
Politikatudományi Szemle, 2000/1–2, pp. 87–150
PDF →
Robots: The Migrants of the Future?
Robotok: a jövő migránsai? · Ellensúly · the possible political consequences of automation
Read (English) →
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Books

Political Science · Strategy · Science Fiction & Politics

A dozen books across political analysis, campaign strategy, and the politics of science fiction.

Strategy & Campaigns

A Tökéletes Kampány
A Tökéletes Kampány — Nyertes stratégiák
Athenaeum, 2021 · 224 pp.
Líra → Libri →
Politika és kommunikáció
Politika és kommunikáció
Századvég, 2002
Libri (antikvár) →

Political Science

A magyar politikai rendszer
Osiris, 2003 (3rd revised ed. 2007)
Szaktárs → Antikvárium →
The Hungarian Political System
DKMKA, 2009 (English)
Bookline →
Négy választás Magyarországon
Négy választás Magyarországon
Osiris, 2015
Bookline →
Member State Violation Against Democratic Principles — What Can the EU Do?
Republikon Institute / European Liberal Forum, 2015 (English)

Science Fiction & Politics

A sci-fi politológiája
A sci-fi politológiája
Athenaeum, 2016
Líra → Moly →
Fantasztikus világok — Társadalmi és politikai kérdések a képzelet világaiban
Athenaeum, 2017
Líra → Moly →
Párhuzamos univerzumok
Párhuzamos univerzumok — Képzelet és tudomány
Athenaeum, 2019 · 642 pp.
Líra →
Egy galaxissal odébb
Egy galaxissal odébb — Fantáziavilágok valóságai
Athenaeum, 2020 · 368 pp.
Líra →